Mathematical modelling

Our study evaluates the utilisation, demand, and future capacity requirements of Mother and Baby Units (MBUs) in Wales, which provide specialist inpatient psychiatric care for women experiencing severe mental illness following childbirth.

Analysing NHS Wales data from 2021 to 2024, the study revealed that 164 Welsh women required specialist admission, with 81% admitted to Wales' sole MBU (Uned Gobaith in Neath) and 19% placed out-of-area in England. Mathematical queueing models demonstrate that the existing six-bed unit in Tonna is operating near or above its 80% capacity limit, resulting in significant theoretical wait times. Furthermore, geographic disparities heavily impact North Wales residents, who face travel times exceeding three hours to access out-of-area facilities.

Insights from a Lived Experience Group emphasised that general adult psychiatric wards are entirely inappropriate and distressing environments for perinatal care due to mixed-sex spaces and a lack of specialist staff. Participants highlighted that travel distances should ideally be under one hour to reduce family anxiety, and stressed that language provision, particularly active Welsh-language offers, must be treated as a crucial clinical need rather than a preference.

The studies modelling simulations indicate that moderate bed expansions (such as adding a bed in South Wales or establishing a dedicated multi-bed unit in North Wales) would drastically reduce waiting times, improve geographic equity, and ensure timely, compassionate care alongside targeted community investments.